Percentage change formulas for investments I recommend as 'buy' or 'hold' are calculated in the normal and orthodox fashion. For recommendations of 'sell', I have reversed the symbol. For example, I recommended selling Bear Stearns (BSC) on 6/20 at a price of $143.20. Since then, the company has lost 2.23 percent. I calculate this as a 2.23 percent gain.
Top Picks and Flop Picks:
This month's top picks:
1. Beazer Homes (BZH) was a no-brainer when they fired their Chief Accounting Officer. Regardless, there were people who decided to hold it. The percentage gain from selling (or shorting) as opposed to holding was 13.56 percent.
2. Lennar Homes (LEN) was less of a no-brainer. Most analysts didn't think the company would end up losing money in the most recent earnings report. The percentage gain from selling (or shorting) as opposed to holding was 10.74 percent
3. The S & P Homebuilder ETF (XHB) was a pick I've seen coming for many months. Despite what some people will try and say, we're not even close to the bottom in the housing market. The percentage gain from selling (or shorting) as opposed to holding was 7.55 percent.
This month's flop picks:
1. Google was the top flop for the month-end of June. They climbed as high as 533.20 with a peak close of 530.26 on June 26th and have since retreated ever so slightly. The percentage loss was 2.50 percent. I still think they reached a peak on the 26th.
2. AMN Healthcare Services was another top flop in June. I recommended a buy on them after reading an article regarding the medical profession. I still would consider buying into them, but I may think about ensuring there's a stop loss at ten percent. The percentage loss was 1.83 percent.
3. Cross Country Healthcare was the third flop for June. They're in the same boat as AMN and I'm still bullish due to the fact that the demand for healthcare runs way past the supply. The percentage loss was 1.01 percent.
The Dow and the S&P...and ME:
The DJIA closed trading on June 14th at 13553.7305. Since then, the Dow has lost 1.08 percent, closing at 13408.62 on June 29th.
The S & P 500 closed trading on June 14th at 1522.97. Since then, the S & P has lost 1.29 percent, closing at 1503.35 on June 29th. Over the same period of time, my investment picks had a combined average return of 3.01 percent. Although it's always fun to outperform the market, I feel I could have done better. I had a good feeling about gold increasing in price, which fell flat. I also felt that Google was to drop below the five-hundred dollar mark; instead it increased.
The present and the future:
As the month of July transforms from the future to the present, I expect more woes in the real estate industry. I think more homebuilders will change from black to red and I believe that gold and gold funds will become more valuable. I also think we've not seen the end of the bull market in oil. At the end of last week oil closed above seventy dollars. It may still see more gains before the end of the summer. After labor day, I'll become far more cautious as demand for oil in the states decreases. Stay tuned - you might make some money!
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