Thursday, July 19, 2007

Jumping Ship on US Stocks

I'm jumping ship on some stock recommendations I've listed as "buys". This includes:

(1) AMN Healthcare - Stock symbol AHS
-Recommended on 6/25 at a price of $22.41
-Closed trading on 7/19 at a price of $21.48
-Net Loss of 4.14%

(2) Cross Country Health Care - Stock symbol CCRN
-Recommended on 6/25 at a price of $16.85
-Closed trading on 7/19 at a price of $17.26
-Net Gain of 2.43%

(3) Intel - Stock symbol INTC
-Recommended on 7/14 at a price of $25.97
-Closed trading on 7/19 at a price of $25.26
-Net Loss of 2.73%

(4) Hewlett Packard - Stock symbol HPQ
-Recommended on 7/14 at a price of $47.25
-Closed trading on 7/19 at a price of $48.40
-Net Gain of 2.43%

I'm keeping all metal ETFs, mining stocks, foreign ETFs, and GE for their alternative energy holdings. Also, I'm keeping sells on the banking and homebuilder stocks I've previously indicated. I'll be recommending more foreign ETFs and metal funds later this evening or tomorrow.

Why the change? I'll give you four reasons: here, here, here, and here. The fourth reason might be the most important. From the Market Oracle:

When this game is over and the music stops there will not be chairs for all players. There will be some winners and many losers. We believe the winners will be those investors that have aligned themselves to the natural resource sector and the many different ways to invest therein.

I don't quote the Market Oracle very often; in fact, this might be the first time. The reason? I seem to always agree with their positions. Two weeks ago, the Oracle had an article stating that the downside risk outweighed the potential gains in US stocks. Had I heeded their warnings, I wouldn't have lost face with Google. Although I gained a few percent with HP and Cross Country, I lost plenty more.

In addition, the Bloomberg stock option report also weighs heavily in my mind. If people are betting against the market at a two to one ratio, then the optimism has turned to pessimism. Consider the options report to be an investor confidence index that's turned south.

Therefore, I'm reducing my exposure to US stocks. The risk just isn't worth it.

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