"Apple may sell as many as 200,000 iPhones in the product's first two days on the market this week and as many as 3 million in the second half of the year, according to the most optimistic analyst estimates. Apple, in its only public forecast, says it plans to sell 10 million next year.
Sales at those levels would outdo the iPod, Apple's best- selling product to date, for comparable periods. The danger is that Apple may fall short of projections for initial sales and damp investor enthusiasm for the product."
I have serious doubts that iPhone sales will out pace the iPod over comparable periods. As I said previously, I think the current price of the phone is too high. In addition to the price is the fact that the phone is only available on one wireless network, AT+T; consumers on other wireless networks would have to pay a fee to cancel their current contract. These two facts don't bode well for short term sales. Reuters agrees:
"Worries over the high cost, slow network speed, and battery life are deterring some customers from ponying up a minimum of $499 for the device, despite the buzz across the gadget-crazed landscape of tech retail."
"But the phone does not work on AT&T's fastest network, which runs on so-called 3-G technology. That, some said, will make Web-browsing slower than phones running on other networks.
"...Apple has a track record of rolling out new, improved and cheaper models, such as the later versions of its iPod digital music and video players. Apple will likely do the same with iPhone..."I think the iPhone will sell closer to 150,000 units over the first two days. The longer-term sales expectations should be easier to meet as prices go down and as people's wireless contracts end. I think Apple could sell three million units by the end of the year, especially if retail does well during the holiday season, and ten million over the course of 2008 is a very real expectation. In the short term, I still recommend selling Apple.
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