The beginning...

Welcome to my blog!

As I start this blog, general market conditions look bleak.
The housing market is in tatters; and still, people keep yammering about a rebound. It's not coming anytime soon. Interest rates have been rising constantly over the past few weeks, which means more loan defaults and an even greater supply of housing on the market. AND, a rise in interest rates means less people will be eligible for mortgages; thus, less houses will sell.
The stock market keeps making gains; Dow Jones record highs are a weekly event. I'm anticipating a market top in July. I like the week of the ninth as a target date. This year, the Fourth of July falls smack dab in the middle of the week; I don't believe that investors will shake their bullish attitude until after the holiday. I'm somewhat amazed that the market hasn't tanked sooner, especially with all the recent bad news. It's a perfect example of psychological factors trumping fundamentals; it's like faith trumping reasoning. Soon enough there will be a price to pay. Get out now while you still can.
Gold has been up and down this year. Hovering around $600 at the beginning of the year, the price of gold shot up to $690 around the middle of April. Currently, the price is $651.60.

Chart: http://www.thebulliondesk.com/

Looking at the five year chart reveals a distinct upward trend. At this point in time, I'd recommend buying gold due to the lull in price; it makes for a perfect jump in point. I expect that the price of gold will continue to rise through at least the end of the year.
Oil has been a bit volatile since the beginning of the year. On January 18, 2007, the price of crude was $50.20. Today, June 14th, oil traded at $67.69 per barrel; that's a 35 percent increase since the winter months. Seasonal cyclical patterns are apparent in the short term.
The long term will inevitably create upward pressure. There is a finite amount of oil in the world; because of it’s relative scarcity, it makes for a great economic topic. In 2007, the United States is consuming oil at the highest rate: 20,730,000 bbl/day. Compare that to China's paltry 6,534,000 bbl/day, a mere 31.5 percent of our consumption. There are 1.3 billion people living in China, compared to 301.1 million people inhabiting the United States. To put it another way, the whole of the population of the USA only amounts to 23 percent of the population in China. So what happens when their oil consumption catches up to ours? I recommend holding oil for the long term. If I had no position, I'd recommend seeing what happens in the next few months prior to jumping in; however, crude oil and oil stocks should see gains in the long term.

---EP